We labor under the illusion that if we pay enough attention, we will understand what is going on in the world. I mean this in the geopolitical sense, but I think it applies to a lot of areas beyond that. Our “media” is a twisted joke, and watching CNN for example, to try to understand how and why those people burned to death in Maui, or what is happening with the fracturing of unipolar power, or climate change …

The millionaire talking heads ooze certainty while knowing nothing (and/or spewing propaganda), and so by watching them, we feel good and informed, while knowing nothing (and snacking down hard on what they spew).

***

When the Wagner mercenary group launched their “coup” a few months back, I watched amazed on Twitter while the blue-and-yellow-flag types cheered and crowed and heralded the final end of Russia. Even in those very early moments it was crystal clear that they not only knew nothing, but had zero interest in being informed. They wanted to wallow in the glory of their team, and to interpret such “facts” as existed in a way that meant they were going to win, and thus continue to feel … cheap glee.

At the time I felt something like pity or a kind of reflected shame for them.

Months later, there is still very little in the way of hard facts.

But there is a new theory, spreading from dusty internet corners of analysis, on what those facts might, possibly, mean. It’s fascinating.

The theory says that the whole scenario was essentially a psy-op, designed to give false comfort to the enemies of the Russian state, and (more importantly) giving its leader the pretext to “banish” Wagner to Belarus.

Thus positioning the mercenaries directly to the north of the Ukrainian capital and forming, potentially, one claw of a massive pincer, comprised of Wagner for offensive purposes, and the Belarusian army on defense.

I feel no glee, in considering this theory, but it is … intellectually coherent, and thus analytically satisfying.

Is it a Conspiracy? Is it “True”?

Fuck, man.

You don’t know and I don’t know, and …

Knowing anything about anything is a lot more rare than we consistently pretend it is.